Air Transport Demand Forecast
World passenger traffic is expected to maintain 4.4% annual growth over the next two decades. Despite external shocks to the system, air travel has proven to be resilient to ruptures, always keeping its historical trend in the long term.
By 2038, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific will be the fastest growing markets, with an annual RPK growth rate of 5.4% and 5.5%, respectively. Followed by Latin America with 5.1%, Africa with 4.7%, Europe with 3.7%, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with 3.4% and North America with 2.7%.
WORLDWIDE AIR TRANSPORT DEMANDSource: Embraer
GROWTH – 2019-2038
World air transport demand will more than double by 2038, reaching almost 18 trillion RPKs for all commercial aircraft segments.
Asia-Pacific will be the largest market, accounting for 38% of world RPKs. Combined, Europe and North America will generate 37% of total air transport demand.
Embraer foresees world demand for 10,550 new aircraft with up to 150-seats over the next 20 years, representing a total market value of US$600 billion. Replacement of aging aircraft will represent 45% of new deliveries with 55% comprising market growth.