Forecast

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Air Transport Demand Forecast

World passenger traffic is expected to maintain 4.4% annual growth over the next two decades. Despite external shocks to the system, air travel has proven to be resilient to ruptures, always keeping its historical trend in the long term.

By 2038, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific will be the fastest growing markets, with an annual RPK growth rate of 5.4% and 5.5%, respectively. Followed by Latin America with 5.1%, Africa with 4.7%, Europe with 3.7%, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with 3.4% and North America with 2.7%.

WORLDWIDE AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND
GROWTH – 2019-2038

Source: Embraer

World air transport demand will more than double by 2038, reaching almost 18 trillion RPKs for all commercial aircraft segments.

Asia-Pacific will be the largest market, accounting for 38% of world RPKs. Combined, Europe and North America will generate 37% of total air transport demand.

Up to 150-seat Market

Embraer foresees world demand for 10,550 new aircraft with up to 150-seats over the next 20 years, representing a total market value of US$600 billion. Replacement of aging aircraft will represent 45% of new deliveries with 55% comprising market growth.

North America
2,780
New Deliveries
27
Share of Total
Latin America
1,150
New Deliveries
11
Share of Total
Europe
2,240
New Deliveries
21
Share of Total
Africa
450
New Deliveries
4
Share of Total
C.I.S.
580
New Deliveries
6
Share of Total
Asia-Pacific
2,990
New Deliveries
28
Share of Total
Middle East
360
New Deliveries
3
Share of Total
Worldwide
10,550
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